Just 12 days to go now and following my look at the minnows for the forthcoming tournament, in this article, I will focus on three teams who I believe will come up short in the Super 8 stage.
Pakistan
Pakistan played in England last summer, losing comprehensively the test series, even before the debacle at The Oval and drawing the One Day series. To put this performance into context, the Sri Lankans had earlier in the summer put England to the sword in the most one sided series of matches that you are ever likely to see. Now England have improved beyond all recognition since those matches, whereas Pakistan seem to be going backwards and were recently walloped in South Africa.
The Pakistani task has now been made even harder by the loss to injury of probably their three most critical bowlers, Razzaq, Akhtar and Asif. (Whether Akhtar and Asif should be available anyway due to their failed drugs test is now a moot point). This makes the form of Rana Naved critical to any chance of success, while hoping that the back up seamers, Umar Gul and Mohammed Sami, can fill in the gaps. The spin option of Kaneria is interesting as he hasn’t played a ODI for over a year.
On the plus side, Pakistan has the best middle order in world cricket in Younus Khan, Mohammed Yousuf and Inzimam, and destructive lower middle order batsmen in Shahid Afridi and Kamran Akmal. The presence of Afridi means that any target is attainable. However, relying on Afridi to fire is not going to get the Pakistani team into the semi-finals. They will win matches, but are not consistent enough to progress.
India
Similar to their great rivals Pakistan in that all of their strength is in their batting. Even with Virender Sehwag in terrible form, any line up that includes Dravid, Tendulkar, Ganguly and Dhoni is going to score plenty of runs. However, their seam attack looks weak and their best line of attack may be to play both Kumble and Harbhajan, making use of the slow pitches in the Caribbean, with Tendulkar and Ganguly also seeing some work as bowlers as well as batsmen.
India toured the West Indies in 2006, losing the ODI series 4-1 (although they did gain revenge in the test series), but gained revenge at home more recently, where they also defeated a weakened Sri Lankan team.
Like Pakistan, there are too many weaknesses and too many other good teams for India to progress to the semi-final stages, and with Bangladesh in their group (with Sri Lanka and Bermuda), it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that they may not even make the Super 8 stage.
West Indies
The host country has never won the World Cup, and despite the fabulous support that the team will receive, it’s not going to happen this time either. Having said that, in Chris Gayle, the hosts have an imposing all rounder, capable of scoring large and quickly at the top of the innings. His off-spin is also much more dangerous than it looks and is remarkably economical.
Captained by Brian Charles Lara (as the Sky promo keeps telling us), there is little for the other countries to fear with the rest of the squad. Sarwan and Chanderpaul have never looked the same players at ODI as they are in test matches, and with the exception of Jerome Taylor, the bowling has little variety, with the pace men that the Weat Indies has been traditionally associated becoming a thing of the past. However, they have two wild cards in Kieron Pollard and Lendl Simmons and the throwing in of such inexperienced youngsters must be seen as desperation.
Lara thinks that the West Indies should get to the semis and take it from there. While I admire his confidence as much as I admire his batting, it is misplaced.
5 comments:
Think I agree that these three may be amongst the sides to miss out, though it's far from clear-cut. Pakistan are probably the 8th team - yet, with that middle-order, they could chase down huge scores. The same goes for the West Indies, though both sides' bowling is probably too weak.
India are hard to predict but, if Kumble and Singh fire, do not discount them.
A interesting article. I agree with you on India and Pakistan, however if Harbajan and Kumble have a special tournament they can't be ruled out. I feel you have not done the West Indies justice, as I can see them possibly going all the way. They have a great team spirit, which will only be helped by the fans pushing them along and if some of the 'average' players (especially Sarwan, Chanderpaul and the seam attack) have a 'more than average' tournament, we could see some shocks. Also another reason I feel that they will get through is rather indirect. I take it then you think South Africa will make it through? I can't see this happening as they don't have a frontline spinner (or 2) to use on slow pitches, making their attack one-dimensional and wrong for the nature of the pitches. So i'd swap South Africa and the West Indies around.
You'll have to wait to see who my tips are, but your point is well made. The fact is that all teams have players who can turn the game. I just think that the West Indies have less than other teams. as for team spirit, that is the very reason why South Africa were not in my "possible" list, but will be in the "probable" list.
actually the Indian pace attack (zaheer esp) has been quite efficient of late and rather ironically they are the ones who have been doing the bulk of the wicket taking of late as compared to the spinners. so i guess it wouldnt be very accurate to say that india's fortunes would be dictated by the spin duo...
But Annath, the West Indies pitches will play slow and low, so although the pace bowlers may be doing the bulk of the work at the minute, the spinners will have to do a lot of it in the West Indies, because of the nature of the pitches. Also, you say the seamers have been taking a lot more wickets recently - is that because of the pitches?
I believe that India's strongest strengh is their spin attack and I think that they will prove pivatol when the tounament gets under way.
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